Newsletter for CAREGIVERS

Last weekend as usual we had the monthly meeting with our coach Anthony Valdez who gave us updates about geopolitcs and how our strategy should change for the next stage.

If you missed it and you are investor, here is the report.

The world is navigating its fourth systemic global crisis. The Strait of Hormuz blockade (8th week), Ukraine war, US-China rivalry, and economic pressures are amplifying each other, creating cascading shocks. This is an allocation crisis — not just higher prices, but real shortages of energy and key goods. The system is approaching a rupture that could lead to a New Cold War 2.0, with middle powers actively reshaping alliances.

Key Highlights:

Hormuz blockade has caused over 1 billion unproduced barrels (~13M bpd lost). Brent trades $108-114 (high $126), with extreme backwardation and strong refined product cracks.

UAE exited OPEC (“UAExit”), benefiting non-OPEC producers.

Macro: Mild stagflation with liquidity. US fiscal re-acceleration counters the energy shock, supporting sticky inflation and negative real rates.

Portfolio Recommendations:

Strongly overweight energy & commodities (crude, RBOB/diesel cracks — 60-70% exposure).

Maintain gold, silver, and bitcoin.

Favor non-OPEC oil producers and services.

Tactical: Patterson-UTI (PTEN); shift GUNR → MLPX.

Avoid long Treasury bonds. Use dips to accumulate real assets.